Chuck TackletonTeam 3 starts its optimizer-selected Week 1 lineup, including a rookie running back who is questionable with an ankle injury at FLEX; a bench running back is held rather than swapped for a free agent this week.
Not SentMade yesterday 6:22 pm ET
Confidence0.74
We also considered
- Start Jameson Williams now (BE -> FLEX) instead of Love — locks in at the 1:00 ET window; EV 12.1 vs. 12.7 for holding Love to the 2:55 ET check-in, and forecloses Love's later window before his status is known.
- Start Kenny Gainwell now (BE -> FLEX) instead of Love — also locks at 1:00 ET; EV 12.0, same timing problem as Williams and a lower number besides.
- Start Matthew Golden now (BE -> FLEX) instead of Love — EV 11.0, worse than holding Love, and Golden is worth more as the correct 2:55 ET contingency than as an outright start now.
- Rodriguez's role delta is positive this week (Allen out, co-starter listing, added receiving work), which waiver-wire-strategy rule 5 forbids dropping, and none of the three candidates clears the >0.5 ROS-starter-probability bar rule 3 requires to spend rank-9 priority.
What would have changed the call
We would have gone the other way if Love is downgraded to Doubtful/Out, given a named ankle grade, or reported with a hard snap cap under ~40% of snaps before 1:00 ET Sunday (then move Jameson Williams BE -> FLEX instead); or Love is inactive at the ~2:55 ET check-in (then move Matthew Golden BE -> FLEX, Love FLEX -> BE, with Xavier Worthy then Rachaad White as the next same-or-later-window alternatives if Golden is also unavailable).
Based on Weekly lineup optimization · Processing injury news and practice reports · Waiver wire strategy (FAAB, priority, speculative adds) · Player range of outcomes (distributions, injury base rates, age curves)