Bijan Robinson

RB · ATL Active

Age

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Experience

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Height

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Weight

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College

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	Season	Career
Fantasy
Points per game	—	—
RB stats
Carry share	—	—
Target share	—	—
Touches per game	—	—
Touchdowns	—	—

Bijan Robinson enters 2026 firmly entrenched as an elite three-down back, with career-high 21.8 ppg, 99th-percentile carry and target shares, and a rising three-season slope on nearly every efficiency and volume metric, confirming both role security and growth rather than decline. The 18.9 week projection looks conservative against a 25.0-opportunity, 1.03-points-per-opportunity Last-3 pace, and the last game's poor efficiency (2.20 ypc, 0.41 points/opportunity) reads as a low-usage outlier rather than a trend given flat carry-share and stable snap share. The one thing to watch this week is target usage against Pittsburgh, since target share has driven much of his recent scoring upside and a tougher run defense could shift work toward the passing game. News lines add no injury or role concerns—coverage is centered on his contract extension, backfield depth addition, and general season-kickoff hype—so no practice or status flags affect this projection.

This Week

6.6 to 30.2, most likely 18.9

Season: 200.5 to 401.1, most likely 308.5

Usage

Role and Availability

Lead back (carry share 0.57, target share 0.28).

2025: played 17 of 17, no multi-game absences; 2024: played 17 of 17, no multi-game absences.

2025: RB1 of 3 on ATL by total points.

What Chuck Weighed

• Usage stickiness (how well shares of targets, carries and snaps persist, by position and horizon) (90% sure)
• Rookie-year finish as the year-2 and year-3 breakout signal (WR and RB, with target share, TE and QB) (68% sure)
• Situational factors (wind, cold, dome, rest, Vegas implied total and spread) (68% sure)
• Draft capital as a breakout prior (early-career top-24 rates by round for WR and RB, top-12 for TE and QB) (65% sure)
• Touchdown regression (how much of TD rate is noise, expected TDs from opportunity location, QB included) (65% sure)
• Ball-share shifts (what moves when a teammate is absent or the QB changes, how fast, how long it sticks) (64% sure)
• Processing injury news and practice reports (62% sure)
• Team-change discount (how much prior-season usage share survives a move, and why a QB change alone is not a discount) (62% sure)
• Player range of outcomes (distributions, injury base rates, age curves) (61% sure)
• Bye weeks and fantasy playoff schedule planning (60% sure)
• Weekly lineup optimization (60% sure)
• No-prior PPG shrink (what a rookie or a player without a qualifying prior season shrinks his season-to-date points toward, and how many pseudo-games the draft-capital prior is worth) (60% sure)
• Window length of the in-season PPG shrink (the whole season to date beats the last four games; recency weighting, a week term and a points-scale fit add nothing) (60% sure)
• PPG-level in-season shrink (how much of a trailing-4-game points ratio carries into the next game, and whether it beats the raw average and the share blend for projecting points) (60% sure)
• How many games of usage to trust (the in-season window) (60% sure)
• Scoring distribution shape (weekly spread around expectation, next-season PPG spread, by position and tier) (60% sure)
• Team range of outcomes (season simulation, playoff and title odds) (60% sure)
• Correlation and stacking between roster players (60% sure)
• Football probability base rates (variance, TD regression, sticky stats, game environment) (60% sure)
• Quarterback interception regression (season INT rate is noise; volume and depth mix are what carry) (60% sure)
• In-season efficiency as a points trigger (a weeks 1-6 YPC or yards-per-target fall adds nothing to the trailing points average; measured null) (55% sure)
• Pseudo-game blend of the in-season PPG shrink (the prior season is worth about 4-5 games, but blending by games played adds nothing to the fixed season-to-date line; measured null) (55% sure)
• Signals inside a draft-round tier (pick slot within round 1 and age at NFL entry add nothing to round; measured null) (50% sure)
• QB quality and receiver points (how much a passer's quality moves his receivers' points, and why a new passer's prior season predicts none of it) (50% sure)
• Veteran decline signals (age by position, early-season snap-share drift, efficiency proxies) (25% sure)
• Soft breakout signals (camp reports, preseason usage, college breakout age, age at breakout) (not yet measured)
• Coaching and play-caller change (how much of last season's share survives a new offense) (not yet measured)

Updated yesterday 6:05 pm ET