Chuck Tackleton
Emeka Egbuka
WR · TB Active
- Age
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- Experience
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- Height
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- Weight
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- College
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| Season | Career | |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy | ||
| Points per game | — | — |
| WR stats | ||
| Target share | — | — |
| Snap share | — | — |
| Touchdowns | — | — |
Egbuka's 2025 season line was a true WR1 role: 78% snaps, 24% target share, 35% air-yards share, all in the 85th-93rd percentile at the position, though points_per_opportunity sat only at the 43rd percentile, meaning volume outran efficiency. The "Last 3" and "Last game" rows show a sharp recent fade -0.203 snap share and -0.126 target share below season mean, with just one target-area look last game, which clashes with ESPN's confident 14.0-point projection built on the full-season role rather than the recent dip. The news trail explains the gap: soreness and a practice limp-off through August created real concern, but he was upgraded to a full practice participant and full-go/active status by Friday, so the injury cloud has cleared for Week 1. The one thing to watch is whether Sunday's usage snaps back toward his season-long 24%/35% shares or continues the recent rotational shrinkage.
This Week
5.6 to 22.5, most likely 14.0
Season: 145.7 to 270.5, most likely 208.1
Usage
| Last 3 | Last Season | This Season | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 3.9 | 11.5 | — |
| Snap share | 57% | 78% | — |
| Carry share | 0% | 0% | — |
| Target share | 11% | 24% | — |
| Touches per game | 3.3 | 7.6 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0.0 | 0.3 | — |
Role and Availability
Rotational (target share 0.11, air-yards share 0.21).
2025: played 17 of 17, no multi-game absences; 2024: played 0 of 17, 1 multi-game absence.
2025: WR1 of 8 on TB by total points.
What Chuck Weighed
- Usage stickiness (how well shares of targets, carries and snaps persist, by position and horizon) (90% sure)
- Rookie-year finish as the year-2 and year-3 breakout signal (WR and RB, with target share, TE and QB) (68% sure)
- Situational factors (wind, cold, dome, rest, Vegas implied total and spread) (68% sure)
- Draft capital as a breakout prior (early-career top-24 rates by round for WR and RB, top-12 for TE and QB) (65% sure)
- Touchdown regression (how much of TD rate is noise, expected TDs from opportunity location, QB included) (65% sure)
- Ball-share shifts (what moves when a teammate is absent or the QB changes, how fast, how long it sticks) (64% sure)
- Processing injury news and practice reports (62% sure)
- Team-change discount (how much prior-season usage share survives a move, and why a QB change alone is not a discount) (62% sure)
- Player range of outcomes (distributions, injury base rates, age curves) (61% sure)
- Bye weeks and fantasy playoff schedule planning (60% sure)
- Weekly lineup optimization (60% sure)
- No-prior PPG shrink (what a rookie or a player without a qualifying prior season shrinks his season-to-date points toward, and how many pseudo-games the draft-capital prior is worth) (60% sure)
- Window length of the in-season PPG shrink (the whole season to date beats the last four games; recency weighting, a week term and a points-scale fit add nothing) (60% sure)
- PPG-level in-season shrink (how much of a trailing-4-game points ratio carries into the next game, and whether it beats the raw average and the share blend for projecting points) (60% sure)
- How many games of usage to trust (the in-season window) (60% sure)
- Scoring distribution shape (weekly spread around expectation, next-season PPG spread, by position and tier) (60% sure)
- Team range of outcomes (season simulation, playoff and title odds) (60% sure)
- Correlation and stacking between roster players (60% sure)
- Football probability base rates (variance, TD regression, sticky stats, game environment) (60% sure)
- Quarterback interception regression (season INT rate is noise; volume and depth mix are what carry) (60% sure)
- In-season efficiency as a points trigger (a weeks 1-6 YPC or yards-per-target fall adds nothing to the trailing points average; measured null) (55% sure)
- Pseudo-game blend of the in-season PPG shrink (the prior season is worth about 4-5 games, but blending by games played adds nothing to the fixed season-to-date line; measured null) (55% sure)
- Signals inside a draft-round tier (pick slot within round 1 and age at NFL entry add nothing to round; measured null) (50% sure)
- QB quality and receiver points (how much a passer's quality moves his receivers' points, and why a new passer's prior season predicts none of it) (50% sure)
- Veteran decline signals (age by position, early-season snap-share drift, efficiency proxies) (25% sure)
- Soft breakout signals (camp reports, preseason usage, college breakout age, age at breakout) (not yet measured)
- Coaching and play-caller change (how much of last season's share survives a new offense) (not yet measured)
Updated yesterday 6:05 pm ET